It’s been almost three decades since James Carville uttered a single sentence that not only helped Bill Clinton win the American presidency in 1992, but also cemented his place in history as a political strategist.
The sentence? “It’s the economy, stupid.”
It was Mr. Carville’s way of keeping the campaign and the candidate focused on the issue that mattered most to voters and, therefore, the results of the election. The strategy worked, propelling Mr. Clinton into office.
The economy — and the jobs the economy helps create and maintain — typically is the most important issue to the American voter. After all, caring about any other issue can be a luxury when you can’t pay the bills.
That was 1992. But the message remains true as the 2020 presidential election beckons.
When the economy was booming, President Donald Trump looked to have his second term locked in. The effect of the coronavirus pandemic has caused governments to close large swaths of the economy, unemployment is high and many small businesses are hurting. The CARES Act was an attempt to stop the economic bleeding, but there still is a long way to go.
If the economy rebounds by Election Day, one can reasonably expect Mr. Trump to win. If the economy continues with double-digit unemployment numbers and an economy in disarray, expect the president to have a difficult time securing a second term.
One way to spur the economy is to look at ways to remove government impediments to growth. That’s where a concept like lowering the payroll tax comes into play. Lowering it through the end of the year, for example, would have cultivated the desire to go to work, while also increasing middle- and low-income workers’ take-home pay.
It’s an idea that was supported by President Trump but doesn’t have enough support now to become reality. That’s unfortunate because Cesar Conda, the former chief of staff of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, recently pointed out that the payroll tax continues to impose a heavy economic burden on workers and small businesses.
It’s also highly regressive, with the bottom fifth of households paying 6.9% on average while the top 1% pay 2.3%, according to the Tax Policy Center.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that the economy is going to decide the presidency and whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate.
As a result, political leaders should be more aggressive in aligning policy toward growth and to remove government policies that slow the U.S. economy from rebounding after the coronavirus economic chaos of the past few months.
